The Rugby World Cup: A Year Out

The World Cup is getting closer and closer. This time next year the preparations will be done all competing nations will be in the midst of the World Cup warm up games. The organisation of the event is already well underway and last week the first promotional video was released for the World Cup, we’re that close.

So a year out from the biggest event in rugby what shape are the competing nations in and what can we expect from the home nations?

The usual suspects are hitting good form at the right time, these are the four teams who have won the Webb Ellis Trophy in the past; New Zealand, Australia, South Africa and England. All these four teams have stepped up in the last year. New Zealand and South Africa have been consistently strong since the 2011 edition and will be the overwhelming favourites. It my opinion the All Blacks have peaked a year early as they so often do with World Cups. My tip would be South Africa who are still on an upward curve as they continue to evolve their game.

England and Australia however, have rebuilt their squads and been through some dark times. The Australian side of 2012/13 was one of the weakest that has ever been put together. Meanwhile, England suffered the embarrassment of off-field scandals in 2011 and in 2013 were embarrassed by Wales in a 30-3 loss. There is no doubt that these experiences have improved both squads.

Australia have come on leaps and bounds, they have found a gem in Israel Folau and improved under Ewen McKenzie. They have also won a Super Rugby title through the Waratahs; do not underestimate how important that is to boosting support numbers in Australia. Meanwhile, England have been the most consistent side in the Northern Hemisphere. Under Stuart Lancaster they have grown as a squad and have been unlucky not to have won the Six Nations since the 2011 World Cup.

England and Australia are in the ‘group of death’ together, alongside Wales. Nothing was expected of Wales before the last World Cup and they finished 4^th, and should have reached the final. Since then Wales have shown their full potential in as few as two games; the 30-3 victory over England and the 31-30 defeat to South Africa, a game they should have won. When this Welsh side plays to its potential it can beat anyone, the problem is it rarely plays to its full potential. If they make it out of the group anything is possible but they will have to beat England and the Wallabies, no mean feat.

And so to Ireland and France who meet each other in pool D. Ireland will have no problem getting out of the group and with the current state of French rugby I would expect them to top it. That would leave Ireland with a likely quarter final against Argentina. A far simpler route than fellow home nations Wales and England have. Meanwhile, France will have to up their game considerably if they are to pull up any trees in next year’s competition.

The final home nation, Scotland find themselves in a difficult group. They will have to overcome Samoa if they are to progress. South Africa will top the pool leaving those two teams to fight for second spot. Scotland are improving under Vern Cotter but we are yet to see them really challenged. The summer tour saw them play the USA, Canada and an understrength Argentina team, before they were easily dispatched by the Springboks. We have not seen the Scots play a side at their level as yet so it is difficult to assess where they are but getting out of the pool would be an achievement.

So, down to the business end of the article, who will lift the Webb Ellis Trophy? I would pin my colours to the mast of South Africa. They continue to impress me and Willie Le Roux could be the star of the tournament.

From a home nation’s point of view, it could be disappointing. It is very feasible that only two of the home nations get out of the pools, Ireland and one more from the ‘pool of death’. I would tip England to get out of the pool and go furthest of the home nations but the winner will come from the Southern Hemisphere.