Wales travel down the M4 this weekend to face an English side who have been consistent throughout this years Six Nations; something Wales cannot say themselves. Welsh performances have been up and down this campaign. A good win against France, a bad performance against Ireland and a downright ugly win against Italy. England's form has been far steadier, they should have beaten France, convincingly put away Scotland and edged Ireland in an intense encounter.
That's the form book but does that count for anything in a Wales-England collision? No, in short. Cast your minds back a year, England were improving every game but imploded in Cardiff when they had one hand on the title. These games have been close in recent years and after seeing England's dominance in the 1990's and early 2000's it is nice for a Welsh fan to be able to say that. Two years ago a bounce of a ball allowed Scott Williams the try to win it. In 2011 England only won by a score. We mustn't be fooled by last years 30-3 demolition job, that was a one off when everything fell into place. This time around it will be far closer.
All games are won and lost at the scrum and England's front row is as weak as it has been for a long time this championship. More by bad luck than judgement. Injuries to Dan Cole and Alex Corbisiero have left them with Joe Marler and Dan Wilson as their props, both of whom were outclassed by the Irish scrum last week. Adam Jones and Gethin Jenkins will be relishing the thought of getting the upper hand on the English scrum.
Whilst England are missing two Lions through injury Wales recall a further two to their starting XV. Jon Davies returns to play his first part in this years Six Nations and Alun Wyn Jones returns after a freak foot infection kept him out against France. Alun Wyn Jones will have a key role on the weekend, up against the mightily impressive Courtney Lawes. Both men a the teams lineout callers and dominance in that area will be another deciding factor of the game.
Welsh fans will be delighted to see Jon Davies back, he adds real class to the Welsh back-line, and also allows George North to move back to the wing. Davies has everything you could would in a modern centre, power, pace and very deft skills. He went well for 65 minutes in Scarlets colours last Saturday, but has had no international rugby since he was carried of against South Africa. There is a possibility that he will be out of match practice at this level, but with a player of Davies standard it is perhaps worth the risk.
The place I believe Wales have an upper hand is on the wings. Jonny May and Jack Nowell are good attackers but in defence have looked somewhat suspect, particularly against France. Wales will not want to kick to the on-form Mike Brown and these two wingers could have kicks being chipped in behind them all afternoon. They are in for a difficult afternoon when you add the quality that will be lining up against them in North and Cuthbert.
This will be a close game. I just think Wales have the edge in some key areas. The scrum is an area they can target and also the inexperience of the English wings. However, there is also class in this English outfit Wales will have to stay very near to the breakdown to avoid giving Danny Care space to snipe. They will also have to be accurate with their kicking game and target the wingers and not Mike Brown.
Twickenham is not yet the fortress that it used to be, however much branding is pumped into it. Wales will have no fear of going to 'HQ' and know that they need to win to keep their dream alive. They will also want to spoil England's triple crown party.
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